Robobank’s grain and oilseed projections

Robobank’s grain and oilseed projections

Rabobank recently published its 10-year outlook on the US grain and oilseed market, highlighting trends and forecasts for the coming decade. Andrik Payen, vice president of grain and oilseed analytics.

“The first thing we can notice is American exports. We see US exports growing over the next decade, but we certainly see them growing at a moderate pace. Part of that is because we haven’t seen much growth in wheat. And when you consider the growth from the Black Sea region, Brazil and Argentina, which are increasingly putting more competition on US prices, are making the US less competitive.

Rabobank predicts an increase in corn exports, while soy exports will decrease due to rising domestic demand. In addition, there will be more competition from the Black Sea region, with Ukraine using more oilseeds and wheat competition from Argentina increasing.

“One of the things that really emerges from our analysis is that even if we experience, or are likely to experience, a downward trend over the next decade, given the current circumstances, we still or we will still have prices higher than pre-COVID-19 levels. And this is partly due to the inflationary pressures that we’ve experienced over the last three years, and input costs remain slightly higher than you know what we had pre-COVID.”

Andrik Payen from Robabank.