Mexico heads to the polls in a historic election as two women battle to rule the country

MEXICO CITY — Mexicans will vote Sunday in an election that is groundbreaking on several fronts: It will be the biggest race in the country’s history, it is already one of the most violent in recent memory, and it will likely be a entrust a woman to the presidency. the first time ever.

The two main contenders, who according to polls have largely divided the electorate, are women. The leader is Claudia Sheinbaum, a climate scientist who represents the ruling party and its fellow party members. Her biggest competitor is Xóchitl Gálvez, a businesswoman with a ticket that includes a collection of opposition parties.

Sheinbaum has had a double-digit lead in the polls for months, but the opposition has argued that these figures underestimate the real support for their candidate. In an interview, Gálvez said there is an anti-system mood, and if the Mexicans come out en masse on Sunday, we will win.

“She has the mentality that she is 30 points ahead,” Gálvez said of her rival. “But she gets the surprise of her life.”

The contest shows the enormous progress in Mexican politics made in recent years by women, who were not even allowed to vote in the country until 1953. Both top candidates have significant experience: Gálvez was a senator and Sheinbaum governed the capital, one of the largest cities in the hemisphere.

“For the first time in 200 years of the republic, we women will achieve the highest honor our people can give us: the presidency of Mexico,” Sheinbaum said in a recent speech.

Yet much of the race has focused on a figure who is not on the ballot but plays a major role: the powerful current president, Andrés Manuel López Obrador.

López Obrador has been a fixture in Mexican politics for decades. He ran for president in all three previous elections before finally winning by a landslide in 2018.

Although generally popular, López Obrador was a polarizing figure, eliciting admiration from die-hard fans and vitriol from critics. His government doubled the minimum wage and used cash transfer programs to lift millions out of poverty, while strengthening the military and pursuing measures that many warned would weaken democratic institutions.

His dominance upended establishment politics and pushed three parties, from the right, center and left, to form an uneasy union that now supports Gálvez.

Sheinbaum has mainly appealed to voters by promising to continue his legacy. Gálvez has cast himself as an alternative to those dissatisfied with López Obrador’s leadership and has promised to reverse many of his policies.

“The way these elections turned out is a testament to the impact López Obrador has had on Mexican politics,” said Carlos Bravo Regidor, a Mexican political analyst. “He is the center around which political identities and political positions are defined.”

On Sunday, Teutila Gallego Salvador, 71, and Gloria Maria Rodríguez, 78, emerged from their polling station with a sense of optimism. In Tepetitán, a small town in Tabasco state known as López Obrador’s birthplace and a bastion of his supporters, the two women cast their votes for Sheinbaum.

“We love her. We want her to work like Obrador,” Rodríguez said. “We want a president like Obrador.”

In the capital, 57-year-old Carlos Ortiz rolled into the street in his wheelchair after casting his vote. Ortiz, a municipal official, voted against the party.

“I want everything to change. I don’t want a country to burn anymore,” he said, recalling the dozens of local candidates who have been killed in recent months. “The president is completely insane, he has no idea what he is doing.”

That’s why his vote went to Gálvez, he said — and to Santiago Taboada, the opposition candidate running for mayor of Mexico City.

Whoever succeeds López Obrador will face enormous challenges.

Cartel violence continues to plague the country, causing people to flee en masse and fueling one of the deadliest campaign cycles in recent Mexican history. López Obrador focused the government’s attention on tackling the drivers of violence rather than waging war against criminal groups, a strategy he called “hugs, not bullets.”

Gálvez has rejected the approach.

“Enough hugs for the criminals and bullets for the citizens,” she joked during the campaign. She has said she would withdraw the armed forces from civilian activities and order them to focus on fighting organized crime, while strengthening the police.

Sheinbaum has said she will continue to focus on the social causes of violence, but will also work to reduce impunity and build up the National Guard.

Economically, the opportunities are clear: Mexico is now the United States’ largest trading partner and is benefiting from the recent shift in manufacturing away from China. The currency is so strong that it is called the ‘super peso’.

But there are also problems with simmering. The federal budget deficit has risen to about 6% this year, and Pemex, the national oil company, is operating under a mountain of debt, straining government finances.

“The fiscal risk we are currently facing is something we have not seen in decades,” said Mariana Campos, director of México Evalúa, a public policy research group.

Another challenge concerns the broad new responsibilities assigned to the armed forces, which are charged with running ports and airports, running an airline and building a railway through the Mayan jungle. Sheinbaum has said there is “no militarization” of the country, while suggesting she is open to a reevaluation of the military’s involvement in government-owned companies.

In addition to such pressing domestic challenges, the fate of the next president will be intertwined with the outcome of the United States presidential election. A re-election victory for President Joe Biden would provide continuity, but a return of Donald Trump to the White House would likely be much less predictable.

Trump’s plans to round up people living in the country illegally and deport them back to their home countries on a large scale could affect millions of Mexicans in the United States. He has already threatened to impose 100% tariffs on Chinese cars made in Mexico.

Then there’s the festering issue of fentanyl, which the U.S. government says is being produced by cartels in Mexico using chemicals imported from China. Trump has proposed taking military action to combat fentanyl trafficking.

Dealing with such pressure from Washington, even in the form of inflammatory campaign rhetoric, could prove a challenge for Mexico’s next president.

Sheinbaum has said Mexico would have “good relations” with Trump or Biden as president, and her campaign team has said it will continue working to control migrant flows.

Gálvez said she would also enjoy working with both men.

When asked how she would deal with Trump, she said, “I’m used to dealing with toxic masculinity.”

“It seems to me that Trump is essentially a pragmatic man,” she said, adding, “what he wants is to solve the problems at the border and with fentanyl, and I think we can do that.”

This article originally appeared in The New York Times.