Latin America and the Caribbean – Key Message Update (May 2024): Rain falls in most of the region, but acute food insecurity persists due to violence, economic shocks and seasonal trends – Haiti

Key messages

• In HaitiAlthough violence has decreased in April and May compared to March, transport disruptions and gang extortion along major roads are keeping food prices high, negatively impacting income-generating activities and access to humanitarian food assistance. In much of the country, the consequences of the crisis (IPC phase 3) are likely to persist, while Cité Soleil and some of the very poor households (especially in Croix-des-Bouquets) are likely to continue in the emergency (IPC -phase 4). severe restrictions on livelihoods due to violence in these areas.
• Despite improvements in cumulative precipitation totals in April and May, precipitation has been erratic in space and time since the beginning of the year and is expected to result in below-average precipitation amounts. print temps harvest. In addition to poor harvest expectations, an off-farm income analysis conducted by FEWS NET in May showed a decline in available employment compared to a normal year, driven by uncertainty. Above-average food prices for both local and imported products are expected to continue despite some appreciation from the HTG, further limiting household purchasing capacity.
• In Central AmericaFood security outcomes are likely to worsen during the peak of the annual lean season, especially for very poor rural households in the Dry Corridor region, but also in Northern Honduras and Western Altiplano and Alta Verapaz in Guatemala. These households are still recovering from last year’s crop losses and relied on food purchases that occurred atypically early in the season at above-average prices. It is expected that an increasing number of households will adopt unsustainable coping strategies, such as reducing essential non-food expenditures, increasing atypical migration of more household members, selling productive assets and reducing food consumption, resulting in an increase in the number of households and households. some additional areas that will face a crisis during the lean season (IPC phase 3).
• Despite the transition from El Niño to neutral conditions, the start of the rainy season has been postponed this year. Rainfall deficits and prolonged high temperatures have resulted in forest fires, reduced water availability and forest planting delays first season. Rainfall is expected to normalize in June; However, persistently high temperatures are likely to increase the risk of pests and diseases to crops. These delays are likely to extend the lean season and households are not expected to be able to upgrade to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) until harvesting begins in earnest in September.
• In Venezuelathe population of concern remains very poor households who typically earn wages in VED and have limited access to social program benefits and/or income sources in USD, including remittances – mainly concentrated in urban and suburban areas, including in the Capital District, Anzoátegui, Monagas, Sucre and Zulia. While most of these households are expected to remain in crisis (IPC phase 3) throughout the outlook period, a portion of them will be able to improve to stressed (IPC phase 2) given the announcement on 1 May of increases in vouchers through the Ingreso Minimo Integral (90 USD from Bono Contra la Guerra Económica and 40 USD from the Cesta ticket). In Delta Amacuro, Amazonas and Bolivar, recent harvests of substitute food crops and cash crops improve food availability and reduce seasonal food prices as labor demand also increases with the arrival of average to above average rainfall. With improved incomes and food sources, outcomes for small producers are expected to gradually improve to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) through September.
• Economic conditions remain stable in April, supported by improved tax revenues, the extension of the LG44A general permit – which allows the continuation of oil activities, and the addition of a new law aimed at improving pensions. In addition, Venezuela reported positive changes in domestic production during the 2023/24 crop year, with national rice and corn production experiencing increases of 20 and 30 percent respectively compared to the previous year, increasing labor demand and driving up prices in VED and USD stabilized. and facilitating access to food. However, political uncertainty surrounding the upcoming presidential elections could discourage investment and increase government spending, which would negatively impact social programs and households’ access to food.

Update of the core message

This key message update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity and any changes to the latest FEWS NET projection on acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified region. Read more here.