What Afghanistan and Bangladesh need to qualify for the semi-finals over Australia | T20 World Cup 2024

After Australia’s defeat against India in St. Lucia, both Afghanistan and Bangladesh have a chance to qualify for the semi-finals of the 2024 T20 World Cup. Here’s what they need to do.

India defeated Australia by 24 runs in their last Super Eights match in St. Lucia to qualify for the semi-finals. The result has also opened Group 1, with the Afghanistan-Bangladesh match in St. Vincent becoming the deciding factor for second place in the group semi-final.

Still matches in Super Eights Group 1

June 23, 8:30 PM (local): Afghanistan v Bangladesh, Kingstown

What does Afghanistan need to qualify for the semi-finals?

As Australia has managed to reduce its margin of defeat against India to 24 while keeping its net run rate (-0.331) above that of Afghanistan (-0.650), the comparison for Afghanistan has become slightly more difficult than it would have been had Australia had lost. with a larger margin.

A win against Bangladesh will see Afghanistan progress to the semi-finals on points as the country will end up with four points. A washout, which is also possible given the rain forecast during match hours, will also help Afghanistan get through as the country will then finish on three points, one more than Australia’s two.

A defeat, on the other hand, will knock Afghanistan out. Even if the draw is followed by a defeat in the super over, Afghanistan’s net run rate will only rise to -0.433, not enough to go further than Australia’s.

In short, to qualify, you must avoid defeat.

What does Bangladesh need to qualify for the semi-finals?

Bangladesh’s poor net run rate makes the task more difficult for them. They need to win by a big margin to give Australia the edge on net return and qualify for the semi-finals. In the event of a loss or a washout, they are eliminated. Here are the different margins of victory they would need in different scenarios:

Bangladesh bat 1st

In this case, Bangladesh must beat Afghanistan by 62 runs or more (regardless of how many they score). A win by 61 runs will see them match Australia’s net run rate (-0.331). That won’t be enough, because in the case of equal net run rates and equal number of wins, the criterion that determines which team will advance is head-to-head record. Since Australia defeated Bangladesh in the Super Eights, they will qualify if Bangladesh beats Afghanistan by 61 points.

The required margins of victory will increase if the game is shortened. For a 10-over match, Bangladesh needs to win by 65 runs or more. For a five-over match, Bangladesh needs to win by 66 runs or more.

Bangladesh comes 2nd

If Bangladesh are to chase 200, they will have to do it in 13.3 overs (assuming they reach exactly 200). However, they can afford to take 14 overs if they hit a six at 199 to reach 205.

If Bangladesh chases 160, they will have to reach the target in 12.5 overs. Again, they can afford to take up to 13.3 overs if they hit a six from 159 to 165.

If Bangladesh chase down Afghanistan to 119 and 120, they will have to do so in 12.1 overs (12.5 if they reach 125).

The above scenarios assumed 20-over matches. If the overs are reduced, Bangladesh’s chances will be significantly affected, becoming virtually impossible as the game shortens.

If they are given a target of 100 in a 10 overs game, Bangladesh will have to chase it down in 3 overs, essentially hitting every ball for a six.

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