Instability and economic crisis: Bolivia after failed coup

Issued on: 28/06/2024 – 18:28Altered: 28/06/2024 – 18:26

4 minutes

Here’s what you need to know about the fallout from the failed uprising in the tiny Andean country, rich in natural gas and lithium reserves:

The army

It was a brief but dramatic series of events: soldiers and tanks gathered in a historic square in downtown La Paz and took up position in front of the presidential and other government buildings.

They tried to break through the door of the presidency and the leader of the rebel army, Juan Jose Zuniga, declared that he wanted to “restructure democracy.”

Shortly afterwards he was captured and put in a police car, after which the troops withdrew.

Fourteen civilians were injured by lead pellets and authorities arrested 21 military and civilian suspects, including Zuniga and the chiefs of the navy and air force.

Bolivia and its alarmed foreign allies hailed a victory for democracy, but many of the plans remain murky.

Zuniga claims that Arce knew about the plans and that he wanted to carry out the coup to increase his popularity. The president strongly denies this.

What is clear, analysts say, is that something is rotten within the armed forces. Exactly how big the problem is remains to be seen.

“I think there is a problem within the armed forces, but the fact that the coup was quickly brought under control shows that for the time being, civilian power trumps that of the military,” said Gustavo Flores-Macias, an analyst at Cornell University.

The president

Analysts agree that Arce has emerged stronger after the failed uprising – for now.

“In the short term, this supports his government. But this will be short-lived,” says Pablo Calderon of London’s Northeastern University.

With just over a year left to complete his term, which began in 2020, Arce is facing discontent from powerful corporations and freight carriers over the country’s economic decline.

He is also battling a current within his party, the Movement Towards Socialism, which supports former President Evo Morales as a candidate for the 2025 presidential elections.

The volatile uprising “will give impetus” to Arce’s likely bid for re-election and was “a show of force” against Morales, said analyst Carlos Cordero of Bolivia’s Catholic University.

The ex-president

Morales, Bolivia’s first indigenous president, was hugely popular until he attempted to circumvent the constitution in 2019 and seek a fourth term.

The left-wing politician won the vote but was forced to resign amid deadly protests over alleged election fraud. He then fled the country.

He returned after his former ally Arce won the presidency in October 2020, but a power struggle has since emerged between the two men.

Morales has increasingly criticized the government and is seeking to return to power despite being disqualified by the Constitutional Court.

Arce may now be the center of attention, but Morales remains “the moral leader of the Bolivian left,” Calderon said, adding: “I think it will be very difficult for Arce to be pigeonholed or excluded” from any political negotiation process.

The economy

Bolivia, a country of 12 million people, the majority of whom are indigenous, has been hit by an economic crisis in recent weeks due to a drop in gas production, a major source of foreign exchange.

The country has had to cut fuel imports and there is a shortage of dollars, which has caused protests, and the cost of living has also risen.

The sharp decline in production in Bolivia, which is rich in natural gas reserves, has been attributed by experts to a lack of investment and exploration.

Bolivia has some of the world’s largest lithium reserves and has shifted its focus on the crucial metal, signing contracts with Russian and Chinese companies to develop the industry.

However, these lithium projects are still in their infancy.

Calderon said the coup bid would only make the economic situation more difficult.

“Uncertainty is often bad for business,” he says.

© 2024 AFP