Beryl is expected to hit the Caribbean as a hurricane this week

All eyes are on the Caribbean this weekend as an early-season storm threatens the Antilles.

Tropical Storm Beryl is expected to strengthen into a full-fledged hurricane Saturday night or early Sunday morning, possibly making landfall in the Lesser Antilles early this week.

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It could be one of the first hurricanes ever seen in the tropical Atlantic, evidence of the region’s unusually warm waters that has worried experts calling for a very active hurricane season this year.

Antilles on alert

Beryl emerged from a powerful disturbance that rolled off the African coast this week. The system wouldn’t be out of place at the height of hurricane season, an unusual feat so early in the season.

The U.S. National Hurricane Center expects Beryl to develop into the first hurricane of the 2024 season late Saturday night or early Sunday morning.

High winds, heavy rain, storm surge flooding and rough waves are expected in the Lesser Antilles as the storm rages through the region on Sunday and Monday.

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The worst conditions are likely in Barbados and St. Vincent and the Grenadines as the center of the storm moves closer to the region. These islands could receive 100-150mm of rain as Beryl moves through the region. Poor conditions are also likely in Grenada and Saint Lucia.

Weather experts expect the hurricane to reach the Caribbean Sea in the first half of next week and possibly pose a threat to Jamaica on Wednesday.

Everyone in the Caribbean should closely monitor the developments of this storm and heed the advice and orders of local officials.

One of the first storms in the region ever recorded

If current forecasts come true, this would be an exceptionally rare storm for the region.

This could be the easternmost we have ever seen a hurricane develop in the tropical Atlantic Ocean during the month of June. Hurricanes typically don’t form this deep in the heart of the tropical Atlantic Ocean until later in the season.

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The only other storms to form this early in the year in this far east were Hurricane Elsa in 2021 and an unnamed storm that hit Trinidad and Tobago in 1933. It’s worth noting that both 2021 and 1933 ended up being among the most active hurricane seasons on record.

Experts largely agree that we are in for a very active Atlantic hurricane season in the coming weeks and months. Sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic are several degrees warmer than normal, closer to what you would expect in September than in late June.

These unusually warm waters, together with lower wind shear caused by a developing La Niña in the eastern Pacific Ocean, will provide extremely favorable conditions for tropical cyclone development during the peak of the season this fall.

According to the latest seasonal forecasts, about two dozen storms are expected, far more than the 14 tropical storms we see during a typical Atlantic hurricane season.

Thumbnail courtesy of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

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