Latest updates on Hurricane Beryl forecast as it heads towards Jamaica

The hurricane center is also warning of “life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides” due to heavy rains there and in southern Haiti. Even if the center of Beryl does not make landfall, onshore winds along the southern coast of Jamaica could produce a serious storm surge of 6 to 9 feet. Hurricane warnings are in effect there and in the Cayman Islands.

The hurricane continued to move west after making landfall on Grenada’s Carriacou island on Monday. Officials were beginning to assess the extent of the devastation, particularly on smaller and hard-hit islands including Carriacou and Petite Martinique. Some roads were impassable on Tuesday. Grenada’s Prime Minister Dickon Mitchell said at least three people had died and the death toll could rise. In St. Vincent and the Grenadines, Prime Minister Ralph Gonsalves said the storm had left “tremendous devastation, pain and suffering” and that at least one person had died.

Hurricane warnings cover parts of Haiti and the Dominican Republic and have been issued along the eastern coast of Mexico’s Yucatán Peninsula from Chetumal to Cabo Catoche. Beryl is expected to hit the area as a Category 1 or 2 storm through Friday before emerging over the Bay of Campeche or the Gulf of Mexico this weekend.

From there, the forecasts become more uncertain, with numerous possibilities for Beryl’s future course. Anything from a weak tropical storm making landfall in Veracruz or Tamaulipas, Mexico, to a major hurricane hitting Texas is possible. For now, it’s a matter of waiting, watching, and staying vigilant.

As of 8 a.m. Wednesday, Beryl’s center was 125 miles southeast of Kingstown, Jamaica, and moving west-northwest at 20 mph. That means Jamaica will be hit early this afternoon. Maximum sustained winds in the eyewall were estimated at 145 mph, making Beryl a solid Category 4 hurricane.

Looking “under the hood” using microwave satellite imagery, we see that the southern eyewall is open. That said, the northern eyewall, which is likely skimming the southern edge of Jamaica, will have winds of 100 to 130 mph. It will be a nail-biter, as hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles from the center.

Additionally, winds will be from the southeast, which will likely push water onto the coast, resulting in a storm surge of 6 to 9 feet.

Meanwhile, heavy rains inland could cause flash floods and mudslides, cutting off routes to rural communities in the higher terrain. Some double-digit rainfall totals are possible.

The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season has only just begun, and Beryl has already set a number of records in what has been a display of historic significance. The storm became the earliest-forming Category 5 ever in the Atlantic, beating Hurricane Emily, which reached Category 5 strength on July 17, 2005.

Beryl was also the southernmost Category 4 storm on record when it strengthened over the weekend. It was also the fastest-strengthening storm in the Atlantic before September, going from a tropical depression to a Category 4 storm in just 48 hours.

Although favorable meteorological conditions, such as weak high-altitude winds, the presence of a tropical wave, and divergence or spreading of air aloft, all contributed to the storm’s formation, its intensity is to some extent related to the changing climate.

Water temperatures, 3 or 4 degrees above average, are more reminiscent of early September than late June or early July. That has fueled Beryl’s extraordinary intensity and breakneck strengthening, and fits a well-studied pattern of more intense and rapidly intensifying hurricanes.

Where Beryl is going now

Beryl will continue to drift westward over the next few days, likely heading toward the Yucatan Peninsula. Impacts south of Cancun are likely Thursday night into Friday. By that time, Beryl will likely be a Category 1 or 2 hurricane.

Beryl will experience increasing shear over the next 36 hours, which will rapidly weaken the system. This will be countered by exceptionally warm sea surface temperatures, which will continue to strengthen the system. The net result will likely be only gradual weakening, and a still formidable impact in Mexico.

Will Beryl reach the Gulf of Mexico or the United States?

Beryl is expected to emerge in the Bay of Campeche or the southwestern Gulf of Mexico on Friday afternoon, which will significantly reduce confidence in the forecasts.

If Beryl is a weak system, it will tend to move further west, likely making landfall in Tamaulipas, Mexico, over the weekend. However, if Beryl remains stronger, as would be the result of a briefer interaction with the Yucatán, it could take a more northerly track. That could bring the storm across the western Gulf.

If the latter scenario occurs, the storm from Saturday to Sunday could become stronger and possibly increase rapidly in intensity. The storm is being fueled by the very high temperatures at the sea surface, the calm winds at higher levels and the high pressure in the air. This would cause air to spread out and suck the air at the earth’s surface upwards.

There is a real chance that the hurricane will make landfall in Texas, although Mexico is currently the preferred destination.