The UN predicts global economic growth will reach 2.7% through 2024, driven by gains in the US, Brazil, India and Russia

According to the mid-2024 report, the global economy is expected to grow by 2.7% this year – up from a forecast of 2.4%. The January report – and 2.8% in 2025. A growth rate of 2.7% would be about equal growth in 2023, but lower than the 3% growth rate in 2020 before the start of the COVID-19 pandemic.

“Our forecast is one of cautious optimism, but with important caveats,” Shantanu Mukherjee, director of the UN Economic Analysis and Policy Division, told a news conference launching the report.

Prolonged high interest rates, debt repayment challenges, persistent geopolitical tensions and climate risks Particularly for the world’s poorest countries and small island states.

Mukherjee said inflation, which has fallen from its 2023 peak, is a “sign of fundamental weakness” in the global economy that still looms, “but in itself a cause for concern.”

“We have seen that inflation remains high in some countries,” he said. “Globally, energy and food prices have risen in recent months, but I think it is a bit treacherous that inflation has remained above the central bank’s 2% target in many developed countries.”

The UN’s forecast for 2024 is lower than those of both the International Monetary Fund and the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development.

In mid-April, the IMF forecast that the global economy will continue to grow by 3.2% in 2024 and 2025, the same pace as in 2023. And the OECD forecast growth of 3.1% in 2024 and 3.2% in 2025 in early May.

The latest UN growth of 2.3% in the US in 20241.4% forecast at the beginning of the year and a slight increase in China. It was 4.8% compared to 4.7% in January. per year.

Despite the climate risks, the UN A report from the Ministry of Economic and Social Affairs predicted that primary economic growth for small developing island countries would increase from 2.4% in 2023 to 3.3% in 2024 due to a recovery in tourism.

On the negative side, economic growth in Africa will reach 3.3%, compared to the forecast of 3.5% in early 2024, the report said. It reported weak outlooks for seven African countries – Egypt, Nigeria and South Africa – the continent’s largest economies. countries in a “debt crisis” and 13 countries at “high risk of a debt crisis”.

Mukherjee said the lower forecast for Africa is “particularly worrying because Africa has about 430 million people living in extreme poverty and almost 40% of the world’s undernourished population” and “two-thirds of high-inflation countries are on the list.” Our update also covers Africa.”

For developing countries, the situation is not ‘bad’, but the continued decline and sharp drop in investment growth is a major concern.