Research shows that Great Britain, Germany and France are the most dependent on global trade

The US, Russian and Chinese economies could withstand a full trade blockade with little damage, while Germany, France and the United Kingdom would suffer greatly from the same scenario, according to a study conducted by the Sino-Russian Impact Assessment Laboratory of Intercountry Trade Wars Revealed.

The analysis, conducted in early 2024 at China’s National Supercomputing Center, used mathematical models to assess the resilience of 19 global economies to large-scale economic sanctions. Analysts calculated the direct losses to gross domestic product (GDP) that each country would suffer if faced with a total trade blockade without the possibility of parallel imports.

The analysis found that while the economies of all countries would collapse under the proposed scenario, some would suffer more than others. Russia would be one of the three most resilient countries, with a GDP contraction of no more than 3.5%. China’s GDP would fall 3.1%, while the US would suffer a dip of 2.3%.

If trade ties were to break, the German economy would suffer the greatest damage, shrinking by 8.1%. South Korea (-7.9%), Mexico (7.2%), France (7%), Turkey (6.6%), Italy (6.0%) and the United Kingdom (5.7%) would all suffer significant losses.

The research also found that the economies of Australia, Indonesia and Japan would shrink by 3.7-3.8%, making them less vulnerable than India, Brazil and Canada, where GDP would fall by more than 4%.

Commenting on the findings, Raiffeisenbank Chief Economist Stanislav Murashov said that when faced with economic constraints, the countries least affected will be the best equipped, such as the US, China and Russia, thanks to their composite index of national capabilities. namely their increased natural resources and human and scientific development.

Murashov told it Kommersant news that the countries that ‘win’ in this situation are those that localize their production and can ‘abandon some imported components, parts, raw materials and equipment’, adding that the findings may indicate that China, the US and Russia are less dependent of the global economy. market than Europe.

Official figures show that the Russian economy grew by 3.6% last year, despite various Western sanctions due to the war in Ukraine. In 2024, estimates indicated that the country’s GDP rose at an annual rate of 5.4% in the first quarter of 2024.

The International Monetary Fund forecast last month that Russia’s economy will grow 3.2% this year, putting it ahead of several major Western countries, including the United States (2.7%), the United Kingdom (0 .5%) and France (0.7%). ) and Germany (0.2%).

China and Russia continue to adhere to the principle of non-alignment: Beijing

Russian President Vladimir Putin was in the northeastern Chinese city of Harbin on Friday, the last day of a visit aimed at strengthening economic ties between the two countries.

Putin arrived Thursday on his first foreign trip since his re-election in March, meeting President Xi Jinping for talks in which the leaders described ties with their nations as a stabilizing force in a chaotic world.

Since the start of the war in Ukraine and the imposition of Western sanctions on Russia, trade with China has grown explosively, reaching $240 billion in 2023, according to figures from Chinese customs.

The Financial Times published an op-ed on Tuesday outlining that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s upcoming trip to Beijing could mark a significant shift in the perception of Western economic threats. It argues that Putin’s visit to Beijing could serve as a testament to the resilience of Russian-Chinese cooperation in the face of US sanctions.

Since February 2022, Beijing has become Russia’s largest market for oil and gas, as well as a major source of imports.

Alarmed by this partnership, in December 2023 the White House threatened sanctions against any bank that facilitated payments for Russian military equipment.

US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Secretary of State Antony Blinken made separate visits to China earlier this year, issuing warnings to China’s leaders and financial institutions.

Despite these threats, both the Russian and Chinese governments have shown remarkable resilience. Putin’s visit provides a new opportunity to discuss the creation of an alternative global financial market.