Extreme weather will hit the world in 2024 | World news

Climate change is likely to increase extreme weather events across the planet. It could be a worrying sign of things to come.

Floods and heat waves throughout Africa, flooding in the south Brazildrought in the Amazon and extreme heat in Asia, including India: the news has been full of alarming stories of weather disasters this year, and with good reason.

According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), 2024 has been particularly bad so far for extreme weather, with droughts, extreme heat and floods causing serious damage to health and livelihoods. “Almost every region in the world has experienced extreme weather and climate events of different nature,” WMO climate expert Alvaro Silva told DW.

And while not every individual extreme weather event can be attributed to climate change, they are becoming increasingly likely and increasing in intensity due to greenhouse gas emissions from the burning of coal, oil and gas.

Last year the Northern Hemisphere experienced its hottest summer in 2,000 years, and globally, 2024 is on track to be even hotter.

What is the connection between climate change and weather?

Climate change increases evaporation and releases more water vapor into the atmosphere. This causes more intense rainfall and flooding in some areas, and more extreme droughts in others. Warmer ocean temperatures intensify climate patterns, while higher overall temperatures lead to more frequent heat waves. This is wreaking havoc on global weather patterns, resulting in disparate impacts across the planet.

“It’s not just the frequency and intensity you usually hear about, but it’s also the changes in timing and duration of these extremes,” Alvaro Silva said. “We no longer know what is normal in the climate, because we see an increasing trend of extreme events.”

Which extreme weather is caused by climate change and what is not?

The influence of climate change becomes apparent when we look at long-term weather trends, but determining its role in specific weather events has only recently become possible.

DW looked at three major weather events this year to see whether climate change was a decisive factor. Was there a link between climate change and India’s heat waves?

Also read | Heat wave warning for northwest India; The mercury can reach 45 degrees Celsius in Delhi

In April and into May, India, along with many parts of Asia, experienced a blistering heat wave. Parts of India experienced temperatures of 47 degrees Celsius (116 degrees Fahrenheit), leading to deaths and widespread misery. The heat wave has even thrown into doubt voter turnout in the world’s largest democratic exercise, as India votes in protracted national elections.

Several politicians, election officials and campaign leaders have reportedly fallen ill from the heat, including the federal Transport Minister who collapsed on stage.

“More than 900 billion voters have to go outside and queue for hours in the sun,” said Leena Rikkila Tamang, Asia director of IDEA, a Sweden-based pro-democracy NGO. “We see a clear decline in voter turnout compared to the 2019 elections.”

India’s heatwave was 45 times more likely to be due to climate change and was 0.85 degrees Celsius hotter than it would otherwise have been, according to the World Weather Attribution (WWA). The WWA is an initiative of scientists who investigate whether and to what extent human-induced climate change plays a role in recent extreme weather events.

“There is absolutely no doubt that as long as we continue to burn fossil fuels and thereby increase the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, these heat waves will become more frequent, more intense and longer lasting,” says Friederike Otto. who heads the organization, told DW.

The damage caused by extreme weather depends on the vulnerability of the population. Even a seemingly small increase in temperature can cause major damage.

“In countries like India and other parts of South Asia, where very many people work outdoors, they are much more exposed and vulnerable to even relatively small changes in extreme heat,” says Otto.

Did climate change play a role in the floods in Brazil?

So far, more than 100 people have been killed in severe flooding in the southern Brazilian state of Rio Grande do Sul, which has also caused billions of dollars in damage.

Nearly 1.5 million people have been displaced, in what is believed to be the country’s largest case of climate migration. The state government is even considering relocating entire cities to prevent future catastrophes.

Some scientists have already pointed to the effects of climate change, on top of continued warming from El Nino, to explain the flooding.

Also read | Floods in Brazil: Videos of landslides and flooding in Rio Grande do Sul raise concerns

A study published by the French group Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement (Laboratory of Climate and Environmental Sciences) found that the heavy rains that led to flooding could largely be attributed to human-induced climate change.

WWA is working on its own investigation, but Otto says previous flooding in the country was clearly linked to climate change. Vulnerability also plays a very important role in the damage caused by flooding, with some engineers pointing to a lack of preparedness and problems with infrastructure.

Has climate change made the recent glut of tornadoes in the US worse?

The US has been buffered by a large number of tornadoes this year. Over a four-day period, more than 100 tornadoes struck the Midwest and Great Plains, “causing significant damage and loss of life,” officials said.

The National Weather Service in Omaha, Nebraska, set a record by issuing 48 tornado warnings in one day.

Also read | Tornadoes rip through the southeastern US as storms leave three dead

But the causes of tornadoes are incredibly difficult to pin down because they are so localized. Research into climate change attribution works best on large-scale events over large areas, such as extreme heat and cold, and droughts.

With the exception of tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic Ocean, climate change has not been associated with higher wind speeds, especially over land, according to Otto.

“Given that we don’t see any changes in other types of wind speeds or other types of storms, I wouldn’t expect a huge change, but that could be very different for tornadoes because they are also a different phenomenon.” Essentially, scientists cannot say what role climate change has played or whether it has at all.

Doesn’t extreme weather always happen?

History is awash with examples of extreme weather, even before the wheels of the Industrial Revolution began turning and humans began seriously burning the fossil fuels responsible for climate change. Such events are natural phenomena, but climate change has clearly made them much more likely and destructive, experts say.

Before the 1990s, approximately 70 to 150 weather and water-related hazards were reported annually. Since 2000, 300 extreme events have been recorded annually. Even with past underreporting, “the difference is indisputable,” says WMO’s Alvaro Silva.